Along with the shock of realising the growing threat of the Covid-19 outbreak on our daily life, on our families, loved ones and friends, on our nation and indeed the whole world, frequent reports of increasing infections and death rates have greatly raised our fears and anxiety levels, and governments around the globe have to take much-needed, “drastic” measures to combat the pandemic resulting in restricting our personal freedom, putting the lifestyle as we know it in disarray, thus interrupting our livelihood and economy in unimaginable ways.
Our thoughts are with our community, victims of the virus and health workers, as we continue to experience and confront the unprecedented and evolving global challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic.
But as German chancellor Angela Merkel said last week to her German citizens, and we agree totally, in order for us to come through this crisis, we will primarily depend on the behaviour of each other.
Never before have we been more connected than today, albeit we are also exercising social distancing, with lockdowns in place to break the spread of the infectious virus to save lives.
The panel of experts who produced the McKinsey article stated above believe that with the right protocols in place, and people following those protocols, the lockdown constraints can be gradually released sooner rather than later.
While there is fear about the severe economic downturn may result from a prolonged battle with the novel coronavirus, which has already caused many businesses to shutter and people lose their jobs, we need to do everything possible to find solutions. This according to McKinsey is the imperative of our time.
They think and hope there is a different option from the bleak ones posed in a recent Wall Street Journal editorial that suggests we may soon face a dilemma, a terrible choice to either severely damage our livelihoods through extended lockdowns, or to sacrifice the lives of thousands, if not millions, to a fast-spreading virus.
McKinsey said to avoid permanent damage to our livelihoods, we need to find ways to "timebox" this event: we must think about how to suppress the virus and shorten the duration of the economic shock. And we must do so now. To solve for both the virus and the economy, we need to establish behaviours that stem the spread of the virus, and work towards a situation which most people can return to work, to family duties, and to social lives.
"We must try to bound the uncertainty (surrounding Covid-19) with reason and think about solutions within a limited number of scenarios that could evolve."The study describes the impact of the virus on the world's economy along two dimensions which will primarily drive the outcomes of the crisis for all of us. It lists three archetypes of interventions and outcomes, in terms of virus spread and public health response, and anticipates three potential levels of effectiveness in terms of knock-on effects and public-policy response.
By combining the three archetypes of viral spread and three degrees of effectiveness of economic policy, they see nine scenarios for the next year or more.
To read McKinsey's Safeguarding our lives and our livelihoods: The imperative of our time, article in full, please click HERE.
