Global economic growth to reach 3.2% while textile and clothing consumption contracting in European countries

Global economic growth to reach 3.2% in 2016 according to recent reports released by the established trade fair organisers at Premiere Vision Paris, which is due to open its doors to some 50,000 global visitors between 13-15 September.   

The organisers said the show's unique creative offer, affirmed, high-end and selective positioning, respond more than ever to the needs of global creative fashion professionals looking to stand out in a context of instability and heightened competition.  This reflects a continuity with prior editions, which saw synergies and transversality strengthened between the show's many activity sectors and know-hows.

Overviw and Outlook on the world's economy 

While in 2015, global economic growth slowed to 3.1% when compared to the 3.4% seen in 2014, global growth is expected to reach +3.2% in 2016.

Growth in emerging countries is slowing (+4.1% forecast for 2016). Some countries, such as Brazil and Russia, are going through a serious crisis. The US economy should grow by 2.4% in 2016, stronger than that of the Eurozone (only +1,5 %).

Europe

As for Europe and the UK in particular, while it is too early to assess the true impact of the so-called Brexit (after a referendum on June 23rd 2016 in which a majority vote in the UK voted to leave the EU), it seems at this stage that the political consequences may be even more important than the economic ones.  This remains to be seen pending ongoing discussions, negotiations and developments.

Europe appears fragile and a contagion effect, following the British referendum, would be harmful to European unity.  In the short term, the immediate impact has been a decline in the exchange rate of the pound which will undoubtedly weigh on the competitiveness of European exports.
The UK accounted for 5% of France's textile exports in 2015.

Focus on France

After having stagnated in 2014 (+ 0.2%), French GDP increased by 1.1% in 2015 and similar growth is forecast for 2016 (+1.1%).  Investment growth should in particular benefit
from a positive trend.

Textile and clothing consumption

The global panorama of textile-clothing consumption appears particularly contrasted.

While the US is growing, consumption is still declining in several European countries.
In the US, for the first four months of 2016, clothing consumption in specialised stores grew by 1.9% in terms of value.

The 28-country European Union remains the leading world market for clothing, representing
312 billion euros in 2014, and of that 94% is in the former EU of 15. In total, the five major Western European countries (France, Germany, United Kingdom, Italy and Spain) accounted for 73% of this spending.

In Germany, for the first five months of 2016, consumption remained stable over 2015. Italy, which had seen a decline of 2% in 2015, is seeing a somewhat improved situation, as textile clothing consumption declined by just 1.6% in the first quarter of 2016. Spain continues to enjoy a positive trend in its consumption (+ 2.4% in the first four months of 2016).

In France, textile-clothing consumption declined by 1.6% in value during the January-May 2016 period, compared to the same 2015 period. In a very tense social climate (in France), which was not favourable to business activity, the distribution of spring collections were also penalized by particularly unfavourable weather this year.