Mintel forecasts steady Christmas as British shoppers embrace Black Friday!

*Mintel forecasts December retail sales to be worth £48.7 billion 

*39% of consumers bought something during last year’s Black Friday promotions - Electrical items were the most popular purchases - bought by 49% of Black Friday shoppers

Love it or loathe it, Black Friday is now fully ingrained in the UK retail calendar.  While the official date of Black Friday isn't until November 29, many retailers are launching special deals starting from today, Friday, November 22, catching shoppers who want to do some early Christmas shopping.  

So whether you want to brave the high street full of bargain hunters and tourists or opt for shopping online in the peaceful home (or office) setting, there are serious deals and savings to be had, from electronic toys to games consoles, clothing, beauty and personal care.

Luxury Personalised Christmas Cracker - Family Treats by The Handmade Christmas Co. 

Black Friday is a tradition that originated in the US where retailers cut prices the day after Thanksgiving.  In recent years, UK retailers have hoped on the bandwagon and embraced it as a major annual shopping event in the run-up to Christmas.


According to retail and market experts at Mintel, last year almost two in five (39%) British consumers made a purchase during the Black Friday promotions.  Avoiding the retail rush, 86% of Black Friday shoppers bought online, while just under three in ten (29%) bought in-store. Amazon was the most popular destination, with 42% of Black Friday buyers shopping with the online giant during the event. 

ENGLISH LAVENDER COLLECTION By Yardley London

Overall, electrical items were the most popular purchases, bought by 49% of Black Friday shoppers, followed by clothing and footwear (38%) and beauty and fragrance (25%). 

Nick Carroll, Associate Director of Retail Research at Mintel, said:  “Black Friday is here to stay, and we expect it to be potentially the biggest it’s ever been in the UK. Unlike in recent years, Black Friday 2019 falls right at the end of the month - after payday and less than four weeks before Christmas. This makes perfect timing to capitalise on shoppers who are looking to save during this uncertain period.
Mintel forecasts December retail sales to be worth £48.7 billion 

Despite a particularly tough year, Mintel forecasts some Christmas cheer for Britain’s retailers. Latest research predicts that December’s retail sales will reach £48.7 billion, growing a respectable 3.8% compared to last December when sales hit £46.9 billion.  

 Personalised Christmas Bottle Bags can be ordered from Vanilla Reindeer.

Sales through non-food retailers this December are expected to reach £23.9 billion (including £4.2 billion from online sales generated by physical stores); while food retailers will enjoy sales of £18.8 billion (including £1.4 billion from online sales generated by physical stores). And in the battle between the clicks and bricks, Mintel estimates that internet pure players (online only retailers) will account for £6.0 billion worth of sales.

Mintel forecasts total online sales this December will be worth £11.6 billion, accounting for 23.7% of all retail sales.

Nick Carroll, Associate Director of Retail Research at Mintel, said: “The past few festive periods have shown that customers can be resilient in the face of uncertain times and we believe underlying demand will hold up reasonably well. Customers will, of course, be looking for value, and with fewer days between Black Friday and Christmas this year retailers’ margins may be particularly stretched.

“Although high-street retailers may be under pressure … those that can provide valued experiences whilst tapping into other underlying trends, such as local sourcing and ethical production, combined with attracting value-conscious shoppers, put themselves in a good position this festive season.”

Some Christmas retail cheer: Mintel forecasts growth of 4% for UK sales in December

With the Christmas countdown in full swing, retail researchers Mintel is forecasting some festive cheer for Britain’s retailers. Latest findings predicts that December’s retail sales will reach £47.7 billion (incl. VAT), growing a respectable 4% compared to last December, when sales hit £45.8 billion.  

Coal Drops Yard new shopping mall - a stunning new favourite retail destination in King's Cross, London, near Granary Square. 

Photos © Lucia Carpio

Sales through non-food retailers are expected to reach £23.5 billion (including £4 billion from online sales generated by physical stores); while food retailers will enjoy sales of £18.6 billion (including £1.4 billion from online sales generated by physical stores). And in the battle between the clicks and bricks, Mintel estimates that internet pure players (online only retailers), will account for £5.6 billion worth of sales.

Mintel December 2018 retail forecast: Non-food retailers (stores + online)  £23.5 bn Food retailers (stores + online)  £18.6 bn Online pure players  £5.6 bn  Total  £47.7 bn With online sales generated by physical non-food and food stores estimated to hit £5.4 billion, combined with the £5.6 billion generated by internet pure players, Mintel expects total online sales this December will be worth £11 billion.   Caravane, one of the upmarket retail shops in Coal Drops Yard, King's Cross, London Richard Perks, Director of Retail Research at Mintel, said: “We think that retailers can look forward to a reasonably good Christmas—not outstanding, but it won’t be bad either. While there are some reasons to be cautious, such as falling consumer confidence, there is no real sign of an underlying slowdown in retail sales growth. Retail sales have held up well this year and we expect the recent momentum is likely to be maintained, with retail sales growing at about 4% both in the final quarter of 2018 and in December itself. “While there’s been much talk of how the High Street is being undermined by online retailing, it still only represents a relatively small part of overall retail sales, with most shopping still taking place in physical stores.” Black Friday still stokes interest, but most Brits think discounts are overhyped Black Friday is now well and truly entrenched in the shopping calendar. According to Mintel research, last year nearly six in ten (57%) Brits browsed for goods during Black Friday promotions, while 41% made a purchase during the event. It’s proving a big hit with the nation’s 25-34s, of whom 75% said they browsed for goods and 62% made a purchase. While Black Friday has been synonymous with scenes of crowding bargain hunters, last year just 16% of Brits engaged with the event in-store, with the majority of shoppers engaging online  (56%). Electrical goods were the most  popular purchase, bought by 51% of Black Friday consumers in 2017, followed by fashion, which was purchased by 42% of these consumers. Overall, half (51%) of last year’s Black Friday shoppers said the majority of the purchases they made during the promotions were Christmas gifts. Meanwhile, a savvy six in ten (61%) Black Friday shoppers said they waited for the Black Friday promotions before making a purchase. However, despite the hype, some cynics remain as 66% of 2017 Black Friday shoppers felt the discounts were not as good as they’re made out to be. “While Black Friday has become a high profile retail fixture, retailers do run the risk of bringing forward festive spending, but at discounted prices. There is always a fear of missing out, so the actual outcome is the big unknown for how the retail sector will perform this Christmas. Given some evidence of growing disillusionment among shoppers for Black Friday, Mintel predicts that retailers would like to pull back from promotions for this event. We think that this year’s event will be no bigger than last year’s, and that means good news for the amount of money left over to spend in December.” Concluded Richard.

Photos by Lucia Carpio.

From Midnight to 11am: Cyber Monday Sales Down Compared To Last Year

**2017 Cyber Monday sales show a 3% drop on last year from 12am-11am
** Also, online sales jumped by 18% on Saturday and 6% on Sunday compared to last year after Black Friday

New UK market research released from PCA Predict’s Ecommerce Trends this morning reveals that there has been a 3% decrease in online sales this Cyber Monday from 12 midnight to 11am, compared to last year. So far today, the peak minute for purchasing in the UK was 10.23 am.

This follows a similar trend Black Friday last week, whereby, from 12am-11am, there was a 2% decline on overall online sales, when compared to 2016.

So far today, shoppers in Kingston Upon Thames have made the most online purchases this morning followed by Coventry and South East London.  A breakdown of the top areas for online spending this morning can be found below.

PCA Predict’s Ecommerce Trends tool aggregates data live from PCA Predict's 11,000+ UK retail customers.

"It would seem that the days when consumers would be willing to get up early to bag a bargain are gone. "

Chris Boaz, ‎Head of Marketing of PCA Predict, (a GBG company) said: “So far, Cyber Monday seems to be following Black Friday with sluggish sales very early in the morning. It would seem that the days when consumers would be willing to get up early to bag a bargain are gone. We saw more and more consumers shopping online over Black Friday, blurring the lines between the two shopping events.”

“However, much like this past Friday, we expect online sales to pick up significantly around lunchtime when people are at their desks, and also in the evening time and see the amount spent surge past last year’s.”

Meanwhile, over the weekend, online sales jumped by 18% on Saturday and 6% on Sunday compared to last year after Black Friday.

REGIONAL RANKINGS:

The busiest shopping regions, in the UK are as follows:

Black Friday sales reveal online shopping behaviour and shoppers' loyalty

Analysis of over 7 million unique e-commerce transactions this Black Friday has revealed discounting falls as order amounts rise.  This is good news for retailers, as the average discount on an order decreased by 12 percent compared to last year, whilst the average order amount grew by 9 percent compared to that of 2016.

The data, from customer relationship experts Optimove, suggests that online customers in the UK were willing to spend more on more items on Black Friday 2017.  The average number of items in an order grew by 7 percent compared to last year’s sales day figures. Customers did not insist on receiving such big discounts in order to complete their transactions.

"It is clear that more shoppers are opting to buy online rather than in-store."

Pini Yakuel, founder and CEO of Optimove, comments: “As the numbers come in after Black Friday, it is clear that more shoppers are opting to buy online rather than in-store. Which is why it is more important than ever that retailers understand the behaviours and motivations of their online customers.

“Contrary to traditional analysis of the Black Friday phenomenon, our data shows that most of the individuals shopping with a brand on the day are actually returning, rather than completely new, customers.  On Black Friday last year, our research showed that 71 percent of shoppers had bought something from the brand before at some stage. And this trends continues.

"There are signs that days like Black Friday may be helping retailers to keep customers coming back to their brand." 

“This year, the share of Black Friday transactions which were made by first-time shoppers decreased by a further 18 percent. Customers’ pre-existing contact with a brand goes some way towards explaining why shoppers have been willing to buy more items without such high discounts this year.

“Despite the supposed ‘death’ of customer loyalty, driven in part by the ease of price comparison online, there are signs that days like Black Friday may be helping retailers to keep customers coming back to their brand.

"The challenge for retailers is to continue building on this relationship outside of the pre-Christmas and sales period."

“If retailers can continue to exchange value with their online customers – offering specific offers, personalised communications and experiences – then these positive trends can continue into the sparser months, January and beyond.”

UK Black Friday online sales expected to top Boxing day sales by 77 %

Black Friday is an American shopping phenomenon that happens after their Thanksgiving holiday and this concept has now taken hold in the UK where retailers have adopted the idea since a few years ago, extending it to a last from one day to a week.

This year, Black Friday week total online sales are expected to reach £7 billion, a 164% increase on 2014 and 77% higher than expected Boxing day total sales, according to global real estate advisor Colliers International.

This is reinforced by the decrease in the proportion of Brits shopping on Boxing Day in 2015 (32%) compared to 2016 (23%).

"We’ve seen a build-up of sales which we expect to peak on Friday. "

Mark Phillipson, Head of Retail at Colliers International commented: “Black Friday is evolving into a week-long plus event in the UK.  We’ve seen a build-up of sales which we expect to peak on Friday. This is also a period in the year when retailers should be at full margins but, essentially, they are giving away some of their profits in order to compete for a higher share of consumer spending. However, there is degree of consumer skepticism as to whether any of the deals are actually any better than in standard sale periods, so in reality, it would also seem that Black Friday has just turned into a marketing event craze.”

The research also reveals that Black Friday is becoming much more of an online event since the violent scenes witnessed in 2014. Greater smart phone use and retailers’ much improved mobile websites encourage online purchasing. As a result, footfall was lower than anticipated in 2015 and 2016.

“Black Friday is having a significant impact on consumer spending patterns."

Mark Charlton, Head of UK Research at Colliers International added: “Black Friday is having a significant impact on consumer spending patterns, causing a sharper spike in sales earlier on in the Christmas run-up.  In general, we expect the online sales increase to continue, with weaker footfall on the day itself and a higher surge in online traffic.

“Historically there has been a much more gradual increase in sales in the six weeks prior to Christmas however what we are now witnessing is a potential decrease in consumer spending in the New Year sales due to the possibility of customers suffering from “sales” fatigue.”

Tis the season to shop and spend

Did you enjoy the Black Friday sales?
Did you shop from the comfort of your home or you opted to physically visit the stores?

According to specialists' reports, physical retail traffic referred to as footfall was surprisingly strong while online sales did not grow as much as expected.

Footfall tracking specialist Springboard reported that overall footfall rose 2% on Black Friday (25th November) but fell 0.8% on Saturday.  While high streets and retail parks' traffic were up, shopping malls turned in the worst performance.

Springboard also quoted data from PCA Predict that online transactions rose only 6.7% on Friday and 1.8% on Saturday, defying preditions of 25% increase.

UK's Black Friday evolves as majority of sales move online

Slow fashion label A-MM-E by Emma Kempton is one of the British-made brands on the online store set up by
Best of Britannia, the consumer event platform of British brands.
The BOB online store will launch on November 24th to coincide with Black Friday weekend in the UK.

Experts predict Black Friday this year in the UK will be another shopping bonanza, and that £1.1bn spent last year on the day to be surpassed. Emerging key trends point to evolving consumers behaviour with  15 billion online searches a month regarding Black Friday. 

Online spending on and around Black Friday in the UK this year (that's November 24th, the day after the US celebrates Thanksgiving) will hit an estimated £6.77bn, according to e-tailer body IMRG and SimilarWeb. And around 51% of that spend will be via mobile devices as m-commerce continues to grow fast.  But insights-driven advertising technology company Captify predict the £1.1 bn spent last year on Black Friday is set to be surpassed.

Justin Opie, managing director at IMRG also said the Black Friday period is evolving but despite retailers focusing on week-long bargains, IMRG believes as much as £1.27bn will be spent on the day itself, up 16% year-on-year. And around £3.45bn of the total spend will go through smartphones and tablets.

Genevieve Sweeney lunxury knitwear for men and women is one of British labels on the Best of Britannia online shop. 

Dom Joseph CEO and Co-Founder of Captify, an insights-driven advertising technology company, also predicts the £1.1bn spent last year on Black Friday is to be surpassed.

He said, “In the six years since its introduction into the UK, Black Friday is rightly recognised as the best day of the year to get a good deal on a huge variety of products.”

“We are seeing two key trends emerge this year, firstly, more and more retailers, both online and offline, have offered discounts well ahead of Black Friday. Amazon launched its ‘35 days of Black Friday’ , while UK companies, such as Argos and Tesco, have also offered deals ahead of the day, in order to capture as many consumers as possible. Retailers know the heightened expectations that consumers have for Black Friday, which is why we’ve seen such growth in discounts before the event itself.”

“Secondly, people are now monitoring the prices of products they want to buy, months in advance of Black Friday, and researching information as early as August. Not only this, based on the analysis of 15 billion online searches, there was actually an 11% jump last month of UK consumers researching product prices related to Black Friday, compared to last year."

“Consumers will always vote with their wallets, and if Black Friday didn’t offer huge price discounts on products that consumers valued and wanted, it wouldn’t be nearly as successful as it is and will continue to be.”

In an intensely competitive market, retailers need to get to grips with new data sources.

Like the American tradition of Thanksgiving which acts as a pre-quel to Christmas celebrations, the so-called Black Friday pertains to give Christmas shopping a head-start and will kick off on 27th November this year, the day after Thanksgiving.   While Thanksgiving is not a tradition in the UK, many UK retailers have since 2011 adopted this American shopping bonanza.  Prior to that, the best shopping deals in the UK were during and after Boxing Day.  Now in the run-up to Black Friday, more retailers are adopting aggressive discounting as a strategy in order to attract customers.  UK shoppers splashed out over £810 million on Black Friday in 2014, websites were crashing and people were fighting in the aisles.

Ideal Home Show at Christmas takes place November 25 – 29 2015 at Olympia, London
presenting Christmas-themed products from 650 exhibitors. 

Projected revenues this Black Friday are over £1 billion, according to digital agency Pulse, setting a new record in retail spending.   

  

Experts predict that this year Black Friday is set to be bigger than ever, and sales over the 24 hour period are forecasted to surpass £1 billion pounds for the first time ever in UK history.  To put that in perspective it means that £11,574 will be spent every second.

The latest research from IRI Group has significant ramifications for retailers in the run-up to the all-important Christmas season. The findings show that over half (54.6 per cent) of items sold in the UK are sold in sales or as part of deals such as ‘buy one get on free’.  Following on from dispiriting Consumer Confidence statistics in October, the picture is bleak for British retailers ahead of the crucial December period.

Consumers are increasingly using mobile and eCommerce channels in order to find the best deal, with retailers being forced to respond by ramping up the amount of sales or special deals on offer. This trend has been amplified by the fact that ‘mega-deal’ days such as Black Friday and Cyber Monday are beginning to have a greater impact and forcing retailers to adapt by offering ‘super sales’ in order to remain competitive.

Experts say that this trend is not the path to growth but rather will leave many retailers struggling to survive, unable to distinguish through a pricing strategy alone. The constant discounting of products is likely to further compound retailers’ post-Christmas struggles, continuing the trend of January bankruptcies from the last few years. Since 2013, over 150 have gone to the wall with figures expected to rise.

Instead of constant discount sales, the customer experience across a range of channels is the key to better engagement. The growth of mobile devices has meant that customers are able to research the cheapest option at the touch of a button, regardless of where they are. This in turn has meant that increasingly the mobile customer experience is becoming the critical factor in attracting high customer numbers. With mCommerce now accounting for 40 per cent of all online sales, the mobile is ‘the second shop front’, requiring retailers to focus on providing a unique customer experience to build customer loyalty.

Dan Wagner, veteran eCommerce expert and CEO and Founder of Powa Technologies says: “It is staggering that the vast majority of customers who walk into high street shops are still anonymous to businesses. Retailers have no idea who they are, what they need and how to appeal to them as individuals. An aggressive discounting strategy is not going to cut it – it’s not a path to survival and growth but to destruction. The industry’s future depends on forming a much deeper engagement with customers and this can only be done though data. Forward-thinking retailers are already relying on a wealth of in-depth customer information with every transaction, including age, gender and location of purchase, providing real-time geo-located insight into consumer behaviour. The ones that aren’t are simply being left behind.”

The rise in smartphone usage means that almost every customer on the high street today can comparison shop in seconds, so price-wars are a strategic dead-end. However, smart retailers regard the ability to connect to customers through smart devices as an incredible opportunity to actively connect with them on an experiential level. By using PowaTag, shoppers have the power to complete transactions in seconds anytime and anywhere, utilising triggers including scanning print material, Bluetooth beacons, audio tags and social media.

Dan of POWA Industries continues: “Using the deep-dive data generated by these digital customer interactions, retailers can move way beyond large impersonal campaigns and reach each one of their customers on an individual level. Retailers finally have the ability to bring the science of ROI to offline advertising methods such as billboards and newspaper adverts as captured data is instantly updated when a product is purchased. This allows for a whole range of engagement opportunities such as personalisation, timely cross- and up-selling opportunities and location-based promotions. The current status quo, where retailers are surviving on scraps of useful customer engagement data regarding the effectiveness or impact of their multi-million pound marketing campaigns is untenable. For any business looking to survive in such an intensely competitive market, getting to grips with these new data sources is essential.”